No more Mr. Nice Guy!

I believe it is painfully obvious that I have not really been posting to this blog on a very regular basis. Much of that is really down to the purpose of the blog, you know the whole “Anger Management” thing, and so a lack of posting is actually a good thing! It means that I am not particularly angry, and to top things off, when I have been posting it has mostly been positive stuff like that whole Namibia trip. Well, positive and some reminiscing too.

The whole reminiscing thing is obviously related to the fact that I am not getting any younger. I think that all of us when young look to older people and wonder why they are always so bitter. I know that I certainly had thoughts like that, and others along the lines of that I would not be like that when I got older. Well, having turned 50 this year that makes me ancient in the eyes of the kid I once was! And the sad reality is that I find myself complaining a lot.

I can try and justify this bitching on the fact that the things I bitch about are actually really annoying, but when I think about it I am sure that kids of today see me as some bitter old man as well. Trying to rationalize things, this general dissatisfaction probably comes from the fact that the older you get, the more things you have seen. Your patience has worn out somehow, which would obviously imply that we are somehow given a limited amount of patience for our lifespan. When it is gone, it is gone. No more Mr. Nice Guy.

But seriously though, the fact that I bitch about cellphones, and more particularly the addicted cellphone users, is because these are really, really annoying!  No seriously! I hate those guys!

A friend of mine just got this new BMW with all the cool options. She was telling me about the security systems it has, such as warnings when you start drifting to another lane, or intelligent cruise control etc. Basically the car can almost entirely drive itself. This might seem as a good thing, with all the passive security etc., but I see it ultimately as a bad thing. As the old angry guy, I will say that people today should perhaps first learn how to drive properly, and then fucking pay attention when they are driving! You do not type text messages or surf the web on your smartphone when you are driving a car! The fact that all this new technology they are putting in cars is actually helping the texting idiots is therefore a bad thing! The more driver aids they put in, the more people will do other things than drive their cars when they are on the road. And then when they have an accident, it is not so bad because they have all those airbags and crumple zones built in to their cars to ensure they don’t get hurt.

The problem is, sometimes these idiots also hit other innocent road users. As a motorcycle rider I obviously feel particularly vulnerable. Some will tell me then to stop riding because it is becoming too dangerous. Okay, so just because people are being idiots, and getting worse, I should deprive myself of something I love to do just so that the said idiot does not injure or kill me. Well I don’t agree! I have always adopted very defensive riding, going under the assumption that all other road users are idiots. This way when somebody does something unexpected and stupid, I am prepared for it and can avoid an accident. What bothers me these days is that more often than not the other road user is an idiot! Seriously, as I ride to work, I can very easily see in to the cars as I pass them on the highway. Today we are approaching 50% of drivers doing something on their smartphone while they are driving.

You see them usually already some ways off. The first telltale sign is what I call drifting. The car is gently moving around in its lane as a result of the driver focusing not on the road but the screen of their phone. As they glimpse up on the road from time to time they will adjust their trajectory, and then begin moving to the side again as soon as their eyes wander back to the phone. If they were alone on the road I really would not care what they do. The problem is that, with the number of commuters having increased considerably here over the years, this behavior is common on congested two-lane highways where they drive around 100kmh staying just a couple of meters behind the car in front of them. Even if fully concentrated on their driving it would be impossible for them to avoid contact should the car in front brake suddenly, so imagine the result while looking on their phone.

So, there are accidents on these highways on a daily basis as a result of it all. And what does this do the already congested traffic? Well, accidents have always caused traffic jams because people love to look at the misfortune of others. Today this behavior is accentuated by the same sort of idiots that have caused the accidents in the first place wanting to take pictures with their phones as they creep by the wreckages. I suppose, given the relatively recent craze of selfies (yes, I will be posting a rant about these soon!), people will begin to stop their cars next to an accident so that they can take a selfie of themselves in front of a crashed car.

If feeling like this makes me an angry old man, then so be it! The irony of all this is that part of my job constitutes coming up with and developing new mobile applications. Imagine that, maybe one of these days as I ride along, an idiot will crash in to me because he was using an app I helped make. Would that then be like suicide by proxy?

Meanwhile, back in China...

It seems as if the recent and rapid fall of the Chinese stock markets has gotten a number of prominent financial experts to take notice of what I have been getting at for some time. Certainly the drop in the markets, resulting from a substantial slowing of the growth and coupled with the immaturity of the markets, has been significant and required some firm intervention from the government. However, as some are commenting recently, the big threat is not a dropping stock market but rather the corporate debt in China. Here are some comments from an article I read this morning:

Fast debt growth, opacity of risk and pricing, and very high debt-to-GDP are a hazardous mix, S&P said. It took an unprecedented series of measures to arrest the fall in China’s stock markets, which are worth over US$8 trillion.

Tackling corporate debt may make that seem like child’s play. “Managing the debt market is probably more dangerous than the stock market as the scale of the debt market is bigger and ... the moral hazard is a significant issue,” said Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst David Cui. Reuters

We have all been reading about the troubles in Greece recently, and the never ending discussions between the creditors and the Greek government to find some solution. As much as we all know that the only real way to solve the problem there is at least a partial debt write-off, they keep coming to agreements for ever more financial aid packages that only serve the purpose of reimbursing older debt. Each time the amount increases due to the interest being charged on the debt, and so Greece just keeps slipping further and further down as they implement austerity measures that keeps them from any hope of economic growth. Well, to paraphrase a Swiss banker from back in the 90’s, that is just peanuts in comparison to what is happening in China.

Clearly there is concern for Greece today, but the actual impact on the rest of the world is insignificant. There may be some spill-over to other Mediterranean economies, but ultimately the world will go on without a sneeze even if Greece sinks completely. China is a whole different story. Since the 2008 global economic crisis initiated by the sub-prime debt issues in the US, much of the recovery has been the result of the massive growth in China. Not only has this helped China itself as well as the countries around it, but as China has become a consumption society much like the US and Europe it has subsequently become the driving force behind global economic growth. World leaders will tip-toe around human rights issue with China so as to not upset them and lose out on juicy economic deals. There is no hiding the fact that the Chinese are also very much enjoying the situation where they have become the center of the global economy.

As their economy has begun to show signs of weakness, there has been no holding back in trying to promote further growth, and so the corporate debt grows and grows through ever more opaque shadow banking solutions. There is now concern on the stock markets in China that is currently worth $8 trillion. The corporate debt is estimate at twice that: $16 trillion. It is expected to grow to $29 trillion in the next five years!

I suppose there is some comfort to the fact that I am now beginning to see articles on a fairly regular basis highlighting the dangers of the Chinese economy. I just hope it is not too late that the world notices, and no matter what is done now the possible Chinese economy collapse is going to hurt more than anything we have seen in the last 30 years.