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Monday, November 2, 2015

Reality Check or I Told You So

In checking the news the last few days, I have come across some articles about the stock price of GoPro. In case anybody reads this blog, and I can fully understand that not many do especially considering how long it has been since I posted something new on here, you may remember that during the summer  of 2014 I posted two articles about the GoPro IPO. I was making obvious references to the fact that the market had lost touch with reality, and that there was some absurd hype driving the price to unrealistic levels. The IPO was done at $24, and I had been saying that perhaps $ 12 would have been a more realistic value at the time.

Well, here is an article posted on Money Morning. Looks like their Chief Investment Strategist now agrees as he claims the stock not to be worth more than $ 15:

Why the GoPro Stock Price Dropped 17% This Week
(Nasdaq: GPRO)
By KYLE ANDERSON, Associate Editor, Money Morning • @KyleAndersonMM • October 30, 2015

The GoPro stock price was down another2% in early trading this morning (Friday). GoPro Inc. (Nasdaq: GPRO) stock has now dropped 16.7% from Wednesday's closing price after the company missed on top and bottom line estimates for Q3 earnings. On Wednesday, GoPro reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.13 on revenue of $400.3 million. Those fell short of estimates of $0.29 per share on revenue of $433.6 million.

The company also revised Q4 earnings down from previous estimates. GoPro now expects earnings per share between $0.35 and $0.45 for Q4. That's down from previous estimates near $0.82 per share.

Revenue is also expected to be dismal in Q4, between $500 and $550 million. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters previously called for $690 million. After the lackluster earnings report, the GoPro stock price is now hovering just above $25. That means the stock has fallen more than 63% in the last year. And while some investors may consider buying into GoPro stock at this low price, we do not recommend buying shares of GPRO.

In fact, Money Morning Chief Investment Strategist Keith Fitz-Gerald says GoPro stock isn't worth more than $15 per share. And the rise we saw in the GoPro stock price to a high of $98.47 in October 2014 was nothing more than media-fueled speculation.

"Driven by hype and very clever investment banking, stocks that are breathlessly celebrated by Wall Street often have terrible fundamentals and little or no promise of ever enriching anybody except their founders and early VC investors," Fitz-Gerald said. "Yet they rise like a rocket after their initial public offering, luring millions of investors to their financial demise."

And while we recommend keeping GoPro stock out of your portfolio, there is still a way for investors to profit from the GoPro stock price at today's levels.

Sometimes it is nice to say “I told you so!”…..